For post-election clues, look for where things are said as much as what is said

Nearly there. The election has entered its final week of campaigning, and those of us in the built environment are closely following for clues as to what will get done and built once the next government is in place. What has been most interesting in the last week is not simply what has been said, but where it is being said.

The manifestos have been pored over in great detail. No new announcements from the main parties are getting much traction. Anyway, elements of what is written in manifestos is marketing for votes as much as concrete policy that will be delivered. And, like all marketing strategies, some of it gets done, but plenty ends up on the cutting room floor.

That’s why ING will be spending the last week looking at where things are being said. This applies to both online and in the physical world.

Online, Sir Keir Starmer, the overwhelming favourite (please no more bets) to be the next Prime Minister, felt it necessary to set out his vision for housing in Inside Housing, an influential title for leaders in the affordable and social housing sector.

Again, there was little new information in his words, which faithfully echoed the manifesto commitments. But we can immediately learn two things:

First, and most obviously, the most likely next PM genuinely cares about building more homes, on a moral and political level, as well as an economic lever to growth – his key platform. Good news for the built environment.

Second and perhaps more interestingly, Labour is so comfortable in its electoral position that the party can find time with not long to go to speak to a publication whose readership undoubtedly contains a high proportion of Labour voters. They are already preparing to govern, which involves preaching to the converted rather than convincing the uncertain.

In which case, it comes down to where Starmer is speaking in the real world.

Currently, he is campaigning in constituencies with huge Tory majorities that don’t traditionally vote Labour.

According to the BBC, 76% of the visits by Sir Keir Starmer since the campaign began, were won by the Conservatives in 2019. Places as diverse as Reading West and Mid Berkshire, Bassetlaw, Nuneaton, Thurrock and Monmouthshire. There are rumours of Tories diverting resources to save cabinet ministers in hitherto unquestionably safe seats.

This is where those hoping for immediate solutions to chronic problems such as planning and low housebuilding rates must be cautious.

The next government may suffer from the same Pyrrhic victory as the Tories did from their capture of “red wall” seats in 2019. These constituencies became an immediate poisoned chalice, which couldn’t deliver on their grand visions for Levelling Up on a micro, constituency-level scale. Many are now set to turn back from blue to red.

Labour may have the same problem for growing the macro-economy through attempting to build 1.5 million homes across the country. Combined with the most recent local elections, Labour is on course to control central government alongside great swathes of local government. These will also enjoy having sitting Labour MPs as well. Many of these will be places that are not comfortable seeing cranes and diggers arrive at scale. But these are the places Labour plans to build homes, through new towns across and developable “grey belt” land in traditionally Tory areas.

Here will be the test of how quickly growth can be constructed. Can Labour (and Lib Dem) local planning systems swing in behind the central government mantra?

For the final week, we’ll be watching where the Labour Party does, and doesn’t, talk about housing.

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